Showing posts with label Iraq. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iraq. Show all posts

Wednesday, 27 May 2009

Quick hits and pink picks: A very different kind of Iraqi purge

-Iraq's Commission on Public Integrity has announced that it is issuing approximately 1,000 arrest-warrants for government officials on corruption-related offenses. This massive purge is said to include upwards of 53 senior officials (director-general level or above), and is largely centered around the Ministry of Trade. The trade minister, Abdul Falah Sudani, resigned on Monday ahead of a no-confidence vote in parliament. Obviously, warrants and investigations are far easier to announce than actual convictions, particularly of high-ranking officials. But I find this announcement stunning on two levels: for one, its sheer scale is incredible. Never mind the anti-corruption records of (post-sectarian conflict) developing countries; in what developed country can you find such broad accountability in government? Britain is the only country that comes to mind in recent years, and even there the current expenses scandal is defined by public shame and resignation, rather than actual corruption charges (remember, MPs never actually "broke the law"). Second, the Ministry of Trade is dominated by the Dalawi faction of Prime Minister Nuri al-Malaki; the Iraqi PM is leading a massive anti-corruption investigation centered on his own political fiefdom. That is perhaps the most remarkable aspect of all.

-How concerned should we be that Russia is currently preparing for nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsula?

-Hizbollah is reportedly in talks with both the IMF and EU to safeguard Lebanon's external funding in the event of an election victory by the Shia group on June 7.

-The Economist examines the Obama Administration's first climate-change bill.

-The next big foreign target of Chinese investors is...LeBron James?

Saturday, 28 February 2009

That Was The Week That Was

Politique
-Obama unveiled his massive 2010 budget proposal, much of which breaks with the conservative consensus that governed US policy for much of the past 30 years. $634bn in health care spending will be, in theory, offset by tax increases on American's earning over $250,000 a year. The US president also vowed to cut the deficit in half by 2012. More than a few people questioned the likelihood, and math, of this plan.

-Obama fulfilled a core campaign pledge by announcing a withdrawal date for US combat troops in Iraq (August 2010). He aims to have all troops out by 2011. Oddly, congressional Republicans embraced the president's announcement. Didn't their candidate for the oval office just run on not "cutting and running"? I guess after seeing their poll numbers plummet in the wake of their stimulus obstructionism, they latched on to a sure political winner.

-In Pakistan, Taleban leaders in Bajaur province declared a unilateral ceasefire, a week after a negotiated truce was reached in the Swat valley. In Islamabad, Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz, the chief minister of Punjab province, were banned from holding political office by the Supreme Court, causing the Punjab government to collapse and igniting protests. Political instability + balance of payments crisis + losing control of large portions of your territory = failed state.

-In her first foreign trip abroad, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton promoted pragmatism in US-China relations, overlooking human rights in favor of economic and financial cooperation...and US treasuries. Days later, a US State Department report laid the smack-down on China over the very issue Clinton skirted face-to-face. China was not pleased.

-Cracks in the Russian power structure?

Economia
-The central banks of Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania issued coordinated statements defending their currencies, while a consortium of international institutions announced a loan package for the troubled region.

-The US government increased its stake in Citigroup to as much as 36%, days after Bernanke and Obama sought to calm fears over nationalization. Bernanke said the debate essentially "misses the point." The US Treasury also provided details on its upcoming stress tests.

-ASEAN signed trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand.

-The defense of the rouble appears to have been a success. For now.

The Rest
-In the Champion's League, ManU held Inter to a draw in the San Siro, Arsenal beat Roma on a Van Persie penalty, and Liverpool beat Real Madrid in typical Kop Champion's League fashion. In the UEFA Cup, two of the favorites, AC Milan and Aston Villa, crashed out.

-This. Is. Crazy.

-The Times of London looks at "Japan: the nation that loves robots."

-Slumdog Millionaire was the big winner at the 81st Academy Awards.

Sunday, 1 February 2009

That Was The Week That Was

Politique
-As the financial crisis rolls on, the next phase of government (re)action is developing: US House approves an $819bn stimulus package (with a certain provision we don't like very much) and the FT reports that Obama will unveil a "Big Bang" package of banking/financial/housing reforms this week (now next), Harper's minority government unveils a federal budget that includes the country's first fiscal deficit in over a decade, Merkel has reportedly settled on a plan to create government-backed "bad bank" vehicles to clean up balance sheets, and Aso unveiled his own stimulus package under considerable opposition (he also pledged $17bn in aid to other Asian nations).

-62% of Bolivian voters approved a new constitution in last Sunday's referendum. The new constitution increases the government's control over strategic industries (including natural resources), strengthens indigenous rights, and furthers land reform. Despite the popular majority, 4 of the country's 9 provinces voted against the changes.

-North Korea voided all political and military agreements with the South this week, as mounting tensions on the Korean peninsula threaten all out military conflict. While Kim's motivation is unclear, a few theories seem plausible: 1) he is pushing his way onto Obama's agenda, 2) he is provoking an international crisis to stem any internal revolt amid his ailing health, 3) he has lost control and hardliners are their authority over foreign policy.

-Social and political instability is spreading across Europe: Iceland's government fell, massive strikes paralyzed France, and British workers walked off the job to protest the use of foreign workers amid rising British unemployment. Nationalism, protectionism, and industrial action are all on the rise.

-Iraqis voted in provincial elections. Despite a lower than hoped turnout, the elections were peaceful.

Economia
-The IMF reduced its global GDP forecast for 2009 to 0.5%, and the global economy shed over 70,000 jobs in one day.

-Sterling had a small recovery this week on a slight confidence jump in UK banks, the Euro slipped amid eurozone economic weakness and lack of faith in the ECB, and the USD and Yen both endured "rollercoaster" weeks.

-Exxon Mobile reported record earnings for the 4th quarter. The Lex column in the FT praised the company for "generating free cash flows as others invested" during the good times, positioning itself to pick off rivals and acquire assets in the bad. This conservatism has acted as a hedge against the rapid fall in prices.

The Rest
-In the Prem, ManU go 2 clear with 1 in hand, Liverpool score 2 late to take all 3 from a 10-man Chelsea, and Arsenal throw up a big 0 at home against West Ham. Elsewhere, Becks scores his second for Milan as speculation mounts over his return to LA.

-In tennis, Nadal beat Federer in 5 for the Australian Open title. Rafa's performance was simply incredible, coming less than 48 hours after his Australian open record 5 hour, 14 minute semifinal match against fellow Spaniard Fernando Verdasco. Many took Federer's uncontrollable tears in the post-match ceremony as a sign that even the Swiss great doubted his ability to ever beat Nadal again in a major final and catch Sampras' record 14 major titles.

-In Olympic swimming, Oops!

-While much of the fashion world has been tailoring collections to reflect our dark economic times, these designers look to color.

-Move over Highlander, meet Turritopsis nutricula: immortal jellyfish.

Thursday, 11 December 2008

Mugabe takes a page out of the Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf playbook

Robert Mugabe proclaimed today that "there is no cholera in Zimbabwe."

Mugabe's comment immediately brought to mind another great linguist: Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf. Mugabe has clearly studied the public relations work of the former Iraqi Information Minister. Don't remember him? Well, he blessed the world with rhetorical treats like, "There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!", or his description of the American and British as "tarteers", which is Iraqi slang for "a guy full of farts". My personal favorite: "they are nowhere near the airport ..they are lost in the desert...they can not read a compass...they are retarded." Well said, sir. Well said.

Saturday, 25 October 2008

That Was The Week That Was

Politique
-Asian and European leaders agree to "undertake effective and comprehensive reform of the international monetary and financial systems", presumably at the November 15th G20 summit called by Bush in Washington.

-In his boldest move of a busy week, Sarkozy announced France was creating a sovereign wealth fund to protect national industries from foreign takeover. The slippery slope to protectionism in Europe is being greased.

-US-Iraqi negotiations over Status of Forces Agreement in serious trouble.

-Conflicting signals out of Pakistan: parliament passes resolution condemning "America's war", calling for dialogue with extremists and an end to military action along Afghan border. Within 24 hours, a top military commander claims his forces have seized key village in border region and inflicted heavy casualties on militants, saying "The worst is over...we've turned a corner". Huh...

Economia
-OPEC announces production cut of 1.5 mbd, oil markets shrug it off as crude hits 16-month low.

-Good week/bad week for China: Communist Party leaders approve rural land reform, a giant step towards full rural property rights. China's year-on-year (sorry, Dave) Q3 GDP growth was 9%, its slowest rate in five years.

-Pakistan is in talks with the IMF over an assistance package, joining Hungary and Iceland in returning the troubled institution to relevance. Political power struggle is jeopardizing Ukraine's desperately needed package.

-Currency markets continue extreme volatility. USD and JPY are big winners, with GBP and Euro falling to multi-year lows against the greenback.

The Rest
-India launches first space mission.

-Arsenal manhandles Fenerbahce in Champions League, Spurs sack Juande Ramos and name Pompey's Harry Redknapp new boss, and Hull continues dream start to EPL season.

-Latest 2008 US Election polls

-Finally, the gift that keeps on giving:

Thursday, 4 September 2008

Wow

An incredible chart via FT Alphaville shows that the spreads on Iraqi bonds are narrower than those of Ohio, USA banks Keycorp and National City. That's right folks, Iraqi bonds are now safer investments than two major US regional banks.


Still further evidence that the credit crunch is far from over.

This also speaks to the truly remarkeable progress made in Iraq over the past 18 months. An Iraq in recovery is something we can all get behind.