Obama's quiet revolution

Much of the new American president's time and media coverage has been devoted thus far to the economic crisis. Rightfully so. But if you have been paying attention to the items buried behind the headlines of economic Armageddon, you know that the Obama administration has quietly been remaking the US socio-political landscape.

Among the steps taken in his first five weeks in office: passing the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, giving notice that he planned to rescind in 30 days a last-minute Bush administration rule that expanded the federal protection for, and scope of, the so-called "conscience clause" for healthcare providers, lifting the federal funding ban for international family planning groups that provide abortion services, expansion of the State Children's Health Insurance program, to name but a few. White House advisor David Axelrod has said Obama will soon lift the federal funding ban on stem-cell research. His 2010 budget includes substantial increases for student loan assistance (in fact, it proposes a complete reform the system by cutting out the private lenders who distribute federal loans) and $634 bn over the next decade for health care reform, to name just two provisions. This list doesn't even begin to include his actions on the foreign policy front (for instance, Iraq withdrawal date or interrogation and detention guidelines) or his intention to let the Bush tax cuts expire in a year's time.

Paul Krugman summed up Obama's actions in his NYT column,

"President Obama’s new budget represents a huge break, not just with the policies of the past eight years, but with policy trends over the past 30 years. If he can get anything like the plan he announced on Thursday through Congress, he will set America on a fundamentally new course."

We are all grabbed by the headlines on the economy, banking system and foreign policy challenges facing his administration. But the US president has quietly implemented an agenda that will transform the US social contract. The so-called Reagan revolution is being drawn back, and I would say, somewhat surprisingly, the majority of the American people are on board. The relationship between Americans and their government is changing; a fundamental sea change is upon us.

Now if only he could figure out how to pay for it all...

That Was The Week That Was

Politique
-G7 finance ministers meet in Rome following the passage of an $787bn US stimulus package. US Treasury Secretary Geithner received a not-so welcome reception at the meeting, with some ministers critical of the US deficit and "Buy America(n)" provision present in the final bill. While the meeting provided window treatment to the tensions over protectionism, it is clear that a substantive lack of coordination and consensus is setting the global economy up for a period of tense economic relations. G7 communique text here.

-The Israeli election ended in a stalemate as Kadima won a shock 1-seat minority victory over Likud. The insurgent candidacy of far-right party Yisrael Beitenu and its leader Lieberman shook the political establishment, banishing Labour to the political wilderness and winning the key to an eventual coalition government.

-Venezuelans voted again on abolishing term limits. Chavez has raised tensions in the run up to this vote by denouncing an opposition and US-led "coup" plot.

-For the first time, Pakistan officially acknowledged that "some part of the conspiracy" against Mumbai was carried out on its soil.

Economia
-US Treasury secretary Geithner unveiled an "outline" of the Obama administration's financial system rescue plan. The heavy on intentions, light on details presentation was immediately rebuffed by markets, commentators and policymakers begging for more clarity and substance.

-Karl-Theodore zu Guttenberg assumed the economic portfolio in Angela Merkel's coalition. The move comes less than a week after it was announced that German industrial output fell in December by its largest margin since unification.

-In testimony before Congress, US director of national intelligence Dennis C. Blair said that the global economic crisis was the most urgent threat to US, and global, security. The global political instability, economic uncertainty and diminished US authority stemming from the crisis surpassed the threats posed by terrorism and nuclear proliferation.

The Rest
-In the FA Cup, Everton beat Villa, ManU over Derby, and Swansea forced a replay against Fulham at the Cottage. In other Prem news, Big Phil went bye bye. In Serie A, Becks looked set to return to L.A. after the MLS imposed Friday deadline (or tactic?) passed without a deal. In Spain, Raul broke the all-time goals record at Real Madrid.

-In the biggest study of its kind, researchers found that regular multivitamin use did little to prevent cancer or heart disease in older women.

-Walking down Amsterdam Avenue in Manhattan yesterday, my wife and I stumbled upon a disheveled, mad scientist looking Malcolm Gladwell. As we approached the best-selling author, he very clearly slowed down to walk parallel to us, awkwardly incapable of disguising the fact that he was eavesdropping on our animated, but admittedly unremarkable, conversation. I am convinced that we are now the subject of his next book, Caring for the Elderly, and demand royalties.

That Was The Week That Was

Politique
-US Vice President Joe Biden outlined the foreign policy vision of the young Obama administration in a speech at Munich. He called for a "reset" of US-Russian relations, offered Iran "meaningful incentives" to abandon its nuclear program, and called on America's allies (i.e. Europe/NATO) to shoulder a greater burden in security (Afghanistan, Guantanamo detainees). The speech comes days after Kyrgyzstan, under Kremlin pressure, announced it would close an American military base of great strategic importance. Russia embraced the "reset" concept.

-The US Senate reached a tentative deal on a $827 trillion stimulus package. After fierce political debate that all but shattered Obama's "post-partisan age", the Democrats appear to have picked off three Republican votes by cutting direct aid to states and localities and increasing the percentage of tax incentives in the bill (the bill cuts the size of the so-called 'middle-class tax cut' while increasing incentives to purchase homes and cars). Congress must now reconcile the House and Senate bills before a final package can be sent to Obama's desk.

-Morgan Tsvangirai returned to Zimbabwe to form a coalition government with Robert Mugabe. The president will sign a constitutional amendment allowing Tsvangirai to become prime minister, while a judge threw out treason charges against an important MDC figure.

-Abdul Qadeer Kahn, father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb and prolific nuclear proliferator, was freed from house arrest after 5 years. France and the US immediately criticized the move.

Economia
-The US unemployment rate hit 7.6% and GDP plummeted 3.6% in Q4 2008. According to The Economist, the fall would have been over 5% if not for a sharp rise in inventories. Elsewhere, German industrial output fell by a record 4.6% in December.

-The BoE cut rates to 1%, while the ECB held steady once again.

-Obama imposed a cap on executive compensation at companies receiving "exceptional assistance" from the US government. Politics 101: if you want to appeal to public anger, but have little intention of widely enforcing a rule, insert a vague definition like "exceptional assistance."

-The rouble floor announced by the Russian central bank was tested this week; traders are betting the floor was set too high; oil price and capital flows volatility will continue to weigh on the currency.

The Rest
-In the Prem, Torres fires Liverpool top of the table (for now), Chelsea are in free fall (bye bye Big Phil?), and Arsenal just suck. In Italy, Milan's initial formal offer for Becks was rejected outright by LA Galaxy.

-French street artist JR brought his "28 millimetres: Women" project to Kibera, Kenya. The artist imposes facial images on homes and buildings, providing an identity and voice to the women of one of Africa's largest slums.

-Over 84 people have been killed in Australia's deadliest fire disaster. The state of Victoria has been ravaged by the bushfires, fueled by a prolonged drought and soaring temperatures.

-Scientists have identified a key protein in the process by which the H5N1 virus replicates itself. It is hoped that the discovery will lead to more effective drugs to combat the virus. Egypt confirmed its second human case this year, while both Hong Kong and Vietnam announced new cases in birds.

Mugabe takes a page out of the Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf playbook

Robert Mugabe proclaimed today that "there is no cholera in Zimbabwe."

Mugabe's comment immediately brought to mind another great linguist: Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf. Mugabe has clearly studied the public relations work of the former Iraqi Information Minister. Don't remember him? Well, he blessed the world with rhetorical treats like, "There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!", or his description of the American and British as "tarteers", which is Iraqi slang for "a guy full of farts". My personal favorite: "they are nowhere near the airport ..they are lost in the desert...they can not read a compass...they are retarded." Well said, sir. Well said.

Zim on the brink

Just when things couldn't possibly get worse in Zimbabwe, they tragically do. Zim's health minister has declared a national emergency, as a cholera outbreak has claimed the lives of at least 565 people. The UN estimates that more than 12,500 are infected, and given the water, sanitation, and medical situation in the country, the death toll may rise substantially. The WHO believes these estimates may be significantly lower than the actual figures.

The cholera outbreak not only underlines the collapse of the state under Mugabe, but the danger posed by the current deadlock in powersharing talks between Zanu-PF and the MDC. The country is in desperate need of a new government, and the foreign aid and assistance that will likely coincide with such a transition of power. Aid is essentially frozen in boycott of Mugabe, and a large part of the medical system's failure can be attributed to the brain drain and flight of skilled workers (including doctors and nurses) that Mugabe has instigated.

There is hope. The health minister's announcement coincided with perhaps the strongest condemnation of Mugabe by an African leader to date. Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga has branded the powersharing talks "dead" and called on African governments to "push [Mugabe] out of power". However, as Odinga acknowledged, Mugabe basically serves at the will of the South African government, and only serious action by the ANC to push Mugabe out will succeed.

South Africa's cabinet has called an emergency meeting to discuss the deteriorating situation in Zim. It is time the ANC stood up and assumed the responsibility it has for the crisis to the north. Jacob Zuma and the African Union are confronted with an opportunity to rid Zim of Mugabe forever. It is their duty to turn the human devastation of the cholera outbreak into a new beginning for Zim and its people. They must act now.

Trade in Asbestos: Really?

Freer trade is almost always a good thing. Almost. The biggest exceptions to this rule are weapons, narcotics, dangerous chemicals and, uh, people. Most people would agree that restrictions on trade in such things is a good idea. But apparently "most people" doesn't include Canadian lawmakers, who have been lobbying hard to prevent white asbestos from being added to the Rotterdam Convention's list of toxic substances. With success.

The Economist has provided an excellent backgrounder on the issue, but the basics are simple: the World Health Organization thinks white asbestos is potentially dangerous and wishes to add it to this list; the substance has been banned by 40 countries; alternatives to white asbestos exist; the industry employs less than a thousand workers in Canada and brings in less than $200 million in revenue; Canada is the third largest miner of asbestos, and exports over 90% of its asbestos to other (mostly developing) countries. Moreover, the health risks of white asbestos are highest for those who mine it - so who exactly is this benefiting?

It is not clear to me where the upside is, and Canada's blatant hypocrisy on this issue undermines its position on the world stage. It is time to move on from this shameful practice.