Showing posts with label finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label finance. Show all posts

Wednesday, 4 February 2009

Should All Students Learn Economics? Part I

That's the question being asked in this report by Maurice Black and Erin O'Connor over at Minding the Campus. Actually, the title is misleading since they are really asking two questions, one focused on knowledge of personal finances (debt, credit, investment, risk) and the other on knowledge of basic economic principles. They are related, but distinct, so I think it's worth looking at them separately.

I think answering the first part is easy: yes, we should spend more time teaching youth the basics of personal finance. As the report points out, a large - and growing - chunk of [American] children make use of debit and credit cards, but few have a strong grasp of concepts like credit risk, interest rates and so on. One paragraph reads:

...more than half of all high-school seniors do not realize that paying off a credit card balance more slowly will result in higher finance charges. Only one in three teens knows how to read a bank statement, balance a checkbook, or pay a bill. In short, young adults have ready access to finance, but not to education about finance.
That's discouraging, particularly in light of how we've seen the consequences of consumers in Anglo-American economies taking on completely unsustainable levels of personal debt. Now, society as a whole might be better off if we were better educated in plenty of areas - a basic understanding of, say, automechanics and carpentry. But those are fields that can be safely contracted out to specialists; personal finance is an area that has the potential for more wide-ranging costs and benefits.

I would put it in the same category as health and sexual education: the more aware you are of the basic facts, the more informed your decisions will be and people around you will benefit. For instance, perhaps more education on the basics of infectious disease will lead to more people getting vaccinated - that's a public good. Similarly, it's become clear that poor finance has contagious effects as well.

This is one reason why I think high school math courses should place greater emphasis on teaching risk and probability. In my personal experience, once you moved past basic math courses you were offered Algebra & Geometry, Calculus and other high-level material. But very few of our daily decisions require an understanding of calculus. By contrast, a great deal of them require some basic assessments on risk, probabilities and returns: everything from card games to deciding whether to go back to school, from buying a stock to starting your own business, right down to family planning.

Moreover, psychologists have plenty of experimental evidence suggesting that, as a species, we are very poor at guaging probabilities and risks: we tend to discount high-probability events like heart disease, but focus on low-probability, attention-grabbing events like airplane crashes. So we need all the help we can get. For the topic at hand, a basic understanding of risk and probability might help some people realize that they need more diversity in their financial portfolio than that which is provided by a 401(k), or something similar.

So for me, a stronger emphasis on the basics of personal finances in school would be an excellent idea. However, I'm not sure the case is so clear for the study of economics more generally - but I'll look at that next. In the meantime, does anyone have suggestions for other areas we could beef up on when it comes to secondary and higher education? Comment away.

Saturday, 15 November 2008

That Was The Week That Was

Politique
-G20 leaders arrived in Washington for a summit that had been hailed Bretton Woods II. With President-elect Obama avoiding the summit, and sharp differences between world leaders on the reforms needed to repair the international financial and economic systems, the summit ends like so many before it- with a consensus on principles, little coordinated action, and an agreement to meet again. Declaration text here.

-A regional war looms as the situation in the DRC deteriorates. African peacekeepers are impotent and declared targets by Nkunda, the number of foreign troops/mercenaries in the country grows by the day, and southern African leaders are threatening full-scale military involvement. The NYT looks at the role of minerals in the DRC's history of conflict.

-The EU agreed to restart talks on a strategic partnership agreement with Russia following an EU/Russian summit at Nice. Russia hasn't met the EU conditions set out as a prerequisite to talks following the conflict in Georgia, and it seems only Lithuania has the spine to say so.

-Iraq's cabinet approves new security pact with the US. The agreement extends US troop mandate through 2011.

Economia
-Paulson shocks congress with plan to spend remaining TARP money on capital injections into troubled institutions and companies and consumer spending. The Treasury will no longer purchase illiquid assets, and congressmen/women of both parties are screaming "bait and switch". Paulson deputy Kashkari testified before an angry House, with Rep. Elijah Cummings asking him, "Is Kashkari a Chump?"

-Treasury v. FDIC. FDIC's Bair wants to directly assist 1.5 million homeowners in the US, while Paulson resists a (*cough-cough*) "government spending program"- Paulson believes that his actions are "investments".

-Is a sterling run imminent? That's what George Osborne, Tory shadow chancellor, implied this week in criticizing Gordon Brown's fiscal plans. Osborne's political career is likely done. Sterling has hit a 6-year low against the dollar at $1.49, and Simon Derrick at BoNY Mellon believes sterling's position is now worse than Sept. 1992.

-Eurozone enters its first official recession.

The Rest
-India celebrates first lunar landing.

-This week in Japanese innovation: a robot that feeds you, and bionic legs.

-Arsenal's Prem title run is dead in the water.

-Gordon Brown: control freak.

Saturday, 25 October 2008

That Was The Week That Was

Politique
-Asian and European leaders agree to "undertake effective and comprehensive reform of the international monetary and financial systems", presumably at the November 15th G20 summit called by Bush in Washington.

-In his boldest move of a busy week, Sarkozy announced France was creating a sovereign wealth fund to protect national industries from foreign takeover. The slippery slope to protectionism in Europe is being greased.

-US-Iraqi negotiations over Status of Forces Agreement in serious trouble.

-Conflicting signals out of Pakistan: parliament passes resolution condemning "America's war", calling for dialogue with extremists and an end to military action along Afghan border. Within 24 hours, a top military commander claims his forces have seized key village in border region and inflicted heavy casualties on militants, saying "The worst is over...we've turned a corner". Huh...

Economia
-OPEC announces production cut of 1.5 mbd, oil markets shrug it off as crude hits 16-month low.

-Good week/bad week for China: Communist Party leaders approve rural land reform, a giant step towards full rural property rights. China's year-on-year (sorry, Dave) Q3 GDP growth was 9%, its slowest rate in five years.

-Pakistan is in talks with the IMF over an assistance package, joining Hungary and Iceland in returning the troubled institution to relevance. Political power struggle is jeopardizing Ukraine's desperately needed package.

-Currency markets continue extreme volatility. USD and JPY are big winners, with GBP and Euro falling to multi-year lows against the greenback.

The Rest
-India launches first space mission.

-Arsenal manhandles Fenerbahce in Champions League, Spurs sack Juande Ramos and name Pompey's Harry Redknapp new boss, and Hull continues dream start to EPL season.

-Latest 2008 US Election polls

-Finally, the gift that keeps on giving:

Monday, 6 October 2008

As we fall deeper into the "abyss"...

We all hoped that the signing of the Paulson Plan on Friday would bring some calm and mild confidence back to the global markets today. But as The Telegraph proclaims, we appear to be free falling into an "abyss". While the article's focus on monetary policy (as accelerating the crisis) is, in my opinion, missing the point (I have long said, however, that Greenspan's Fed created this mess more than any single actor), it does reiterate something I briefly touched upon a few days back: the staggering lack of coordination between governments has been a decisive factor in the contagion spreading across the globe.

Europe and Asia are rapidly catching up to the US (it was thought just a few months back that these two regions were well placed to weather the storm). Emerging markets are losing capital fast, and Russian authorities have resorted to simply shutting down the market every other day to stem losses.

All the while, a common, global strategy has been missing (with the exception of central bank liquidity injections). We urgently need a Bretton-Woods style conference to produce a massive, coordinated response to this crisis. The international financial and economic architecture must be reconfigured in line with 21st century markets and power, and the current crisis has highlighted the urgency with which this must be addressed. Europe's lack of coordination is proving more disastrous by the minute. Let us stop the global deterioration now.

Saturday, 27 September 2008

That Was The Week That Was

Politique
-US Congress debates $700 billion "Paulson plan". House Republicans opposed on principle and politics. Having lost his party, Bush's quacking becomes deafening.

-South African President Thabo Mbeki resigns after being pushed out by ANC leadership. ANC deputy president Motlanthe assumes caretaker presidency until likely election of Jacob Zuma next year. Markets initially panic following Trevor Manuel resignation, stabilize on his backtracking.

-Suicide bombing kills 53 people and wounds over 200 at Marriott Hotel in Islamabad. Occurs amid rising tensions between US and Pakistan over US military incursions into Pakistani territory. Reports indicate that the two sides have exchanged fire in recent days.

-Barack Obama and John McCain hold first presidential debate in Oxford, Mississippi. Latest polls...

Economia
-Washington Mutual fails. It is the largest bank failure in US history. JPMorgan quickly buys assets, affirms status as Wall Street's only shining light. Bradford & Bingley, UK's largest mortgage lender, expected to be nationalized on Sunday.

-FBI reportedly conducting formal investigation into 26 cases (including Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, and AIG) of possible fraud related to collapse of US mortgage industry.

-Survey/data indicate the Eurozone has fallen into recession.

-Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley transform themselves into "bank holding companies", marking the death of the broker-dealer model. Banks submit themselves to significantly greater regulation in order to survive independently.

The Rest
-Paul Newman, iconic American actor and philanthropist, dies at 83 in Connecticut.

-Zhai Zhigang becomes first Chinese man to walk in space.

-New York City's Yankee Stadium hosts final game. New York Yankees baseball team is vacating 85 year-old "house that Ruth built" for new $1.6 billion stadium across the street.

-Bruno invades Milan's Fashion Week.

Monday, 8 September 2008

Economics, Morality & Terminology

Bluematter has composed this list of the moral content of economic terminology in the "popular press." Not sure I agree with the last one - depends upon how it's framed. Also: note the lovely contradiction between weak national currency and exports. Can you find any others?

Foreign direct investment (inbound): Good
Current account deficit: Bad
Trade deficit: Catastrophic
Capital account deficit: Not used. Presumably bad.

Weak national currency: Bad
Exports: Good
Imports: Bad

Rising house prices: Good
Falling house prices: Bad
Affordable houses: Good
Unaffordable houses: Bad

Free trade: Neutral
Unfettered free trade: Bad
Fair trade: Good
Outsourcing: Evil
Buying local produce: Divine

Pay rises: Good
Low interest rates: Good
Inflation: Bad

Communism: Very Bad
Socialism: Bad
Capitalism: Bad

Tuesday, 12 August 2008

Empty shelves

UBS executives announced today their plans to split the banking giant. This may mark the end of an era in finance.

Pioneered by Sandy Weill at Citi in the 1980s and 1990s, the "supermarket" model of integrated banking spread quickly. Mergers upon acquisitions upon takeovers upon garbage picking created massive financial institutions offering all services to all investors. If there was a business somewhere that someone was making a profit on, the global investment banks wanted a slice. They justified the size by the synergies created (and thus money saved), streamlining research, capital and operations.

Even well before the credit crunch, however, analysts and investors started asking whether loss making divisions were worth the scale created, as weak performance in some divisions dragged down core, profitable businesses in others. For UBS, its investment banking division has been a recurrent drag on the venerated global wealth management business its reputation was built on(recent scandals- here and here- aside). Citi's shareholders have been asking similar questions for years.

As the credit markets have evaporated over the past 12 months, and investment banking divisions have suffered multi-billion dollar losses on CDOs and other securitized products, many banks are shedding. The era of the financial supermarket may be coming to an end.