(Another Update, Oct 3 - part II on the environment is here)(Update, Sep 30 - An earlier version of this essay included a specific Tory promise on immigration that was incorrect and has been removed. The full Conservative platform has not yet been released. I'm using press releases, the 2006 platform, the 2007 throne speech, and the National Post article which lists all promises made thus far. It's all we've got, people).
The humble scribblers here at le Journale have made a conscious effort to avoid commenting on the ups and downs of election campaigns, but exceptions are made for issues relating directly to international political economy. Earlier, Rory took issue with the suggestion that a certain US VP candidate's lack of international experience was not a significant matter, or worse: an asset. He argued that it's simply not acceptable for the executive branch of government to be out of touch with global issues when so many of our greatest challenges don't respect national borders. Agreed.
Well, Jeffrey Simpson has pointed to a similar worrying trend up here in Canada: the current election campaign is proceeding along as if the rest of the world doesn't exist. Normally I would insert a self-depreciating joke about how the rest of the world doesn't know Canada exists, but this is patently untrue: Canada is regularly referenced as a model for immigration, health care, multiculturalism, internationalist foreign policy, environmental issues and the like. The sad part is, most of these stereotypes do not hold up well to scrutiny. Canada has one of the worst greenhouse gas emissions rates per capita, our foreign relations have been on a downward trend of late, as have our trading relations and levels of foreign aid. Meanwhile, with the effects of the American recession seeping across the border, the importance of attracting international investment and workers to maintain growth and innovation is more important than ever.
So, with that in mind, I'm going to dig into the policies of the two parties most likely to win the election - the ruling Conservative Party and the rival Liberal Party - to examine the future outlook for foreign countries, firms, and citizens who expect to be dealing with the Canadian government over the next few years. Today's themes will be immigration and trade.
Immigration
Canada's ability (and willingness) to attract foreign workers represents a huge economic advantage over the United States. The American H-1B temporary working visas are capped at 65,000 per year (!), which makes doing business in the United States considerably more challenging. This has led firms like Microsoft to re-locate north of the border. What are the two main political parties promising to do about immigration?
Conservatives: Quite frankly, not much. By and large, multiculturalism doesn't jive well with the Conservative's emphasis on 'Canadian values,' but to ignore the fact that immigration is a driving force in the competitiveness of the Canadian economy also doesn't fit with their message of economic responsibility.
Liberals: This party has always had a strong emphasis on attracting new immigrants and on the benefits of multiculturalism. Their promises include a new program to facilitate temp workers and international students gain residency, as well as a re-tooling of our immigration points system to emphasize the skilled trades.
Verdict: Liberals look stronger.
Trade
Quick facts: exports account for roughly a third of Canadian GDP; 80% of those exports are destined for the (slumping) US economy. Exports are mainly from the automotive, aircraft, telecommunications, oil, gas, and agricultural sectors.
Conservatives: In the past year under the Conservative government, Canada has successfully negotiated free trade agreements with Columbia and the European Free Trade Area. That's good. The Prime Minister has also managed to sour our economic relations with China. That's bad. The party has produced protectionist rhetoric that vows to defend the agricultural community but also a promise to re-assert leadership on free trade negotiations with the Americas, East and South Asia.
Liberals: The party platform includes only three paragraphs on trade, most of which lacks any concrete commitments. Unlike the Tories, the Libs at least give a nod to multilateral WTO negotiations; like the Tories, they also promise to make 'Canadian values' of human rights and corporate social responsibility central to trade negotiations.
Verdict: Both parties are strong on free trade in principle; both violate this principle in practice. The edge goes to the Conservatives.
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