Why the AKP Matters

On July 31, Turkey’s constitutional court narrowly rejected the top prosecutor's request to ban the Justice and Development party (AKP) from politics for five years, and its Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for life. This in spite of a guilty verdict on the charge of being a “centre of anti-secular activity”.

The ruling is a victory for both the AKP and Turkish democracy. The prosecutor alleged that the AKP had undermined the secular state and sought to impose Sharia law. The charges were the culmination of a deep struggle for the political future of the country. The secular establishment (led by the military) has reacted to the AKP's rise with fear and aggression. The military's political intervention last year led the AKP to call a snap election, in which it affirmed its mandate with nearly 50% of the popular vote. This support is particularly strong among the rural poor.

The party has also been one of the emerging market darlings of foreign investors- according to the Financial Times, it has tamed hyperinflation, produced average GDP growth of 6.9%, and slashed gross government debt in half. Approximately 70% of the Istanbul stock exchange is held by foreign investors.

But the AKP has misplayed its political mandate since reelection, taking actions that threaten the delicate cohabitation that has existed with the military. The AKP's constitutional amendment to remove the ban on headscarves in universities was seen by hardline secularists as a dangerous affront to Turkey's Kemalist tradition. Despite the merits of opening higher education to universal access, the headscarf issue was a political powder keg, and one the AKP should not have pursued under such heightened tensions. The backlash has led Turkey into political chaos, and threatened the economic reforms so impressively achieved over the past 5 years.

However, political miscalculation is not Islamic revolution. The constitutional court's ruling is a welcome and important decision, as the AKP matters both within and beyond Turkey's borders. It's structural and market reforms have rescued Turkey from repeated financial and economic crises, an agenda it has recently strayed from amidst the political turmoil. It stands as an important example of how moderate political parties can develop out of political Islam. It is a bridge between West and East, one that should be more fully supported by Europe in particular.

The removal of the external incentive of European Union accession has undermined the reform agenda and external "check" on military intervention. A clearer commitment to integrating Turkey into Europe would be a powerful response to the constitutional court's ruling, and once again provide the incentives for moderating the internal tensions undermining Turkey's economic and political progress.