More Good News

The CSM is reporting that recent bomb attacks in Algeria, including the most recent one which killed police and security forces trainees, are starting to resemble the types of attacks common in Iraq. This is troubling because it suggests terrorist groups in North Africa are seeing themselves as part of a broader movement, gaining support from Al-Qaeda and other networks.

Now, I don't want to read too much geopolitical significance into this - these issues are primarily local and directed at the government - but it helps reinforce the view that America's War on Terror has been about as successful as its War on Drugs. That is to say: not very, with many unintended tragic consequences. It's also worth pointing out that the primary objectives of modern Islamism have always been regional first and foremost, with the September 11th, 2001 attacks being an extreme exception. Nevertheless, this might mean that, rather than going out with a bang, Islamist movements have leveraged the Iraq situation to gain a new lease on life.

Of course, the reason few people are paying attention to what's going on in Algeria is that all eyes are focused upon Russia, China and Pakistan. Deciding how to interact with each of these countries poses a challenge to the United States and the rest of Western world; things can turn out very badly indeed. In Pakistan, for instance, the resignation of President Musharraf has left a power void in a country with a poor history of political cooperation and a rich history of political and religious violence - here's a preview of what we might expect in the near future. Worst still, it's not clear that the United States has a clue how to deal with post-Musharraf Pakistan - see also a discussion by our friends at Zeitgeist.

Below, Rory points to an excellent paper that discusses the "return of history." One point in particular stood out for me: with an unsuccessful War on Terror, struggling peace in the Middle East, a resurgent Russia, a powerful China and a fragile Pakistan, the US needs to decide where its priorities rest. The next step is figuring out how to compromise and work with the other players in the game. One thing is for certain: America is not strong enough to manage this new reality alone.