That Was the Decade That Was: the long view

In looking back at the past decade, most commentators have forfeited any meaningful narrative in favor of the proverbial 'better luck next time.' But if the following trends are taken in toto, the past decade in the markets looks downright revolutionary:

-The S&P500 fell 24%, its worst performance since the 1930s, FTSE down 7.3%, DJIA down 9.3%, Nikkei down a massive 44% over the past ten years. Contrast that with the major emerging markets: Russia's Micex index hit the moon with an astounding 802% rise, Brazil's Bovespa jumped 301%, India's Sensex rose 249% and the Shanghai Composite closed 140% higher.

-The benchmark Nymex crude oil contract ended the decade up 210%, but the story in between is among the most volatile in memory. Oil closed out 1999 at $25.60 a barrel, hit $147.27 in July 2008 and ended 2009 at $79.36.

-Spot gold closed the decade up 281%, while copper ended 290% higher.

-Two major stories in the currency markets: the dollar's long decline and the euro's rise to viability. The dollar ended the decade down 23.5% on a trade weighted basis, while the euro gained 43% on the dollar.

So what can we extrapolate from the data above? The 'rise of the rest' is the defining trend of the past decade; loose monetary policy contributed to a great capital flight from developed market equities; the dollar's long relative decline has eroded the US' influence internationally and will shape the coming decade as much as any other trend (politically, financially and economically); emerging market industrialization made commodities a really, really good bet; and precious metals retained their mystical aura in uncertain times.

If you ask people in China, India and Brazil for their impressions of the past decade, I suspect you'll get a more positive consensus than 'good riddance.'