Caution: landslide ahead

Dave's recent coverage/analysis of the financial crisis and debate over the Paulson plan has been excellent (here and here and here...where do I stop?). The political, financial, and economic implications of the current turmoil are all colliding, leaving much uncertainty in the markets and halls of government.

One development, however, seems to be crystallizing by the day: Americans are running to Barack Obama. The RCP national average has Obama with a 5-point lead, a dramatic reversal from the immediate weeks after the Republican national convention. Students of US politics will know that national polls are nothing but a barometer of the electorate's mood, and in the end mean very little. The electoral college is the bread and butter of US presidential elections, and by this measure Obama is on course for one of the largest landslides in decades.

According to RCP, Obama would win the election today by an electoral count of 353 to McCain's 185, a 168 vote advantage (including toss up states- those below a 2% margin of error). Just two weeks ago, Obama held a narrow 12 vote lead. He is also just 23 electoral votes away from victory in the "got this state on lock" column.

Obama's numbers have surged dramatically in battleground states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia (Virginia!), and Indiana (Indiana!). He has opened up a 7.7% lead in the key state of Pennsylvania, and has essentially finished off Michigan and Colorado.

The reasons for Obama's remarkable surge can be summed up in two words: the economy (there is no shortage of good analysis on this). Absent a game-changer over the next month (how many Palins can McCain pull out of his hat?), or Obama showing up nude to the next debate, it is difficult to see how the democratic candidate does not win this election. The only question now might be: by how much?